Tag Archive | "Causality"

Cointegration and Causality between Economic Growth and Social Development in Saudi Arabia

This paper presents an attempt to examine the causal relationships between economic growth and social development in Saudi Arabia between 1980 and 2011. For that, statistical and econometric techniques, such as unit root test, cointegration and Granger Engels causality through Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are applied.

Based on the aggregation of several indicators to construct a single social composite index, results show that there is significant long run causality from social development to economic growth. This indicates that trickle-up hypothesis is more active dominantly and that development strategies in Saudi Arabia have succeeded to reach significant social development enough to cause economic growth in the long run.

  Cointegration and Causality between Economic Growth and Social Development in Saudi Arabia (322.9 KiB, 3,035 hits)

Posted in Economics, Volume IV, Issue no. 2

Macroeconomic Variables and the Dynamic Effect of Public Expenditure: Long-term Trend Analysis in Nigeria

The paper investigates the long-run relationship between government expenditures and a set of macroeconomic variables (GDP, consumer price index and unemployment) using annual data collected from CBN statistical bulletin for a period of 19891 to 2011. It particularly adopts Johansen multivariate co integration for its estimation procedure and discovers that there is long-run relationship between government expenditure and the specified macroeconomic variables. It also discovers that an increase in capital expenditure improves economic bliss, while recurrent expenditure is detrimental to growth. Finally, our findings show that most of the variables do not Granger cause each other, but however, recurrent expenditure Granger causes prices, in the same veil capital expenditure does granger cause unemployment.

  Macroeconomic Variables and the Dynamic Effect of Public Expenditure: Long-term Trend Analysis in Nigeria (477.4 KiB, 4,425 hits)

Posted in Economics, Volume III, Issue no. 6