Empirical Evidence of Fiscal Policy Impact on Endogenuos Models of Economic Growth – the Case of Albania

According to Mankiw (2000), fiscal policy in major macroeconomic models adversely affects the behavior of private agents as consumers and firms and they affect economic growth through investment and savings decisions. Increasing government spending will increase the aggregate demand for goods and services and money demand in the money market leading to an increase of interest rates while markets tend towards equilibrium. The increased interest rates affect negatively the level of private investment. To assess the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth generally are used the endogenous growth models, which include technological progress as an integrated part of this model. These models were called endogenous because they were taking into account long-term economic growth and were using endogenous mechanisms to explain its main source which is the technological progress. Endogenous growth models developed by Barro (1990), Mendosa, Milesi-Ferreti and Asea (1997) or even by other economists, predict that the fiscal policy can affect the level of product and the long run economic growth. This conclusion is analyzed in the theory of Barro (1990), which extends the model by including the fiscal policy. The Barro’s model is the model used in this paper to analyze the effect of the fiscal policy on economic growth in the case of Albania. The empirical work shows that all the variables, except inflation which according to theoretical expectations should have a negative effect, affect positively the economic growth. This positive relation between these variables can be explained by investments in infrastructure and other priority sectors that the government has done during all this period.

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