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Forecasting the Success of Governmental “Incentivized” Initiatives: Case Study of a New Policy Promoting the Replacement of Old Household; Air-conditioners

Governments often use budget so as to provide incentives for citizens to adopt new policies, especially when these are promoting eco-friendly technologies e.g. to subsidise the price of a hybrid-car. The public money spent on each policy, is considered to be value-for–money only if many citizens do adopt the proposed policy. This is also known as the ‘cost-effectiveness’ or the ‘economic success’ of a new policy. The latter should not be confused with the ‘economic impact’ of the new policy, as this is usually referred to the respective macro/micro socio-economic impact. This study reports on a experiment with semi-experts using Structured Analogies (SA) forecasting the success of a new policy promoting replacing old household air conditioners with energy saving units under a new environment and technology initiative implemented by a European government. The findings shows evidence that Structured Analogies (SA) is a useful forecasting tool for policy making, however all methods predicted results that were considerably off the mark, indicating the difficulty of the forecasting task under examination.

  Forecasting the Success of Governmental "Incentivized" Initiatives: Case Study of a New Policy Promoting the Replacement of Old Household; Air-conditioners (698.6 KiB, 2,048 hits)

Posted in Economics, Volume II, Issue no. 1Comments Off on Forecasting the Success of Governmental “Incentivized” Initiatives: Case Study of a New Policy Promoting the Replacement of Old Household; Air-conditioners

Forecasting Sales in a Sugar Factory

Beets’ cultivation and sugar production represent one of the most important parts of Greek agricultural economy. A careful and well-organized planning of the production as well as the determination of an accurate safety stock is important for sugar industry, as for many other companies and organizations, in order to define the production quantity which leads to maximum revenues and profits. Forecasting, and especially widely used statistical forecasting techniques, is the best way for policymakers to organize their activities and company’s production and make the appropriate adjustments. Apparently, management information systems and forecasting support packages play a leading role in this area, since the amount of data under process is usually quite large and demands an automated procedure to effectively produce and evaluate forecasts. In this case study, “Pythia”, an expert forecasting platform developed by the Forecasting and Strategy Unit of the National Technical University of Athens, was implemented on a monthly data series regarding sugar sales of a Greek sugar factory for the years 2000- 2005, bringing theory and practice together. Additionally, the methods or combinations of methods which are well suited for this time series are highlighted based on three error indices. Finally, the results of the study and conclusions are considered and perspectives of progress and development in the field of forecasting are contemplated.

  Forecasting Sales in a Sugar Factory (732.6 KiB, 3,289 hits)

Posted in Economics, Issue no. 7Comments Off on Forecasting Sales in a Sugar Factory