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The Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on Foreign Trade Performance: Evidence from Turkey as an Emerging National Economy

Nowadays, while globalization has become a prominent phenomenon and gained great importance, foreign trade has started playing a critical role for economic success of countries with the extinction of closed economy concept and shrinking distances among countries as a result of the technological advancements and fascinating continuous growth of the national economies. Many academicians and practitioners agree that the sudden and considerable oil price fluctuations recently experienced led to substantial effects on economies, especially the emerging economies through affecting their foreign trade performance negatively, or positively. Therefore, this paper is aimed at arguing and researching such effects by using the relevant data from Turkey as an emerging economy via some econometric analyses focusing on the investigation of the effects of changes in oil price on export volume and its volatility. For this purpose, several cointegration and volatility modeling studies have been carried out in which oil price, export volume and some other control variables that are assumed to possibly affect export volume are the major variables considered, using the monthly data scanning the period between January 1998 and September 2015. The empirical results provide some robust evidence about the presence of significant relationship and interaction between oil prices and export performance.

  The Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on Foreign Trade Performance: Evidence from Turkey as an Emerging National Economy (1,005.1 KiB, 529 hits)

Posted in Economics, Information Technology, Knowledge Management, Volume VII, Issue no. 5Comments Off on The Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on Foreign Trade Performance: Evidence from Turkey as an Emerging National Economy

Impact of Placement Choices and Governance Issues on Credit Risk in Banking: Nonparametric Evidence from an Emerging Market

This paper is intended to develop some conditional credit risk models through a cursory approach in which any quality deteriorations in banks’ cash credit portfolios, measured as unfavourable changes in the ratio of delinquent credits to total credits, are considered to be a signal for an increase in overall credit risk and the weights of credit segments in entire portfolio are used as predictors. In modelling, two separate studies with consolidated and non- consolidated financial statement data covering the time period between March 2003 and March 2009 have been carried out. Our models based on Neural Networks and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines provide significant evidence that dynamic structure of credit portfolios are among the important determinants of credit risk. Furthermore, there exist some findings supporting the active role of macroeconomic conditions and our network models yield sound proofs suggesting that corporate governance concerns are influential on credit risk and quality.

  Impact of Placement Choices and Governance Issues on Credit Risk in Banking: Nonparametric Evidence from an Emerging Market (943.5 KiB, 1,765 hits)

Posted in Economics, Volume III, Issue no. 4Comments Off on Impact of Placement Choices and Governance Issues on Credit Risk in Banking: Nonparametric Evidence from an Emerging Market